Cattle Call: Herd Rebuilding Crawls Forward, but Is July the Tipping Point?
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14m
Cattle Call is an original production of the Nebraska Rural Radio Association and is brought to you by Wolf Auto – Small Town Strong.
All-time highs in the north, a stubbornly steady south, and a market-shaking false rumor have shaped this week's cattle trade.
On this episode of Cattle Call, Brad Kooima of Kooima, Kooima & Varilek breaks down the cash market split, the fallout from screwworm speculation, and why herd expansion still looks sluggish despite recent rains.
🐮 Record Highs in the North, Stagnation in the South
Cash cattle prices reached historic levels in the north last week, hitting as high as $231. But while the northern market soared, southern trade remained flat.
“The south was basically steady... I would almost call it steady due to lack of trade at $220,” he said. “If I was a feedlot manager in the south, I'd be going like, hmm, I got $220 and the boys up north got $230-$231, why do we have to be $10 back?”
Kooima said the disparity is due in part to the difference in how cattle are marketed regionally. In the south, formula-based pricing and long-standing packer relationships dominate, while the north sees more active bidding.
🐮 NWS Rumor Rocks the Market
Early-week trading was rocked by false reports of a New World Screwworm detection in the U.S., which led to a sharp selloff before the story was debunked.
“Feeder cattle go down $7 and live cattle go down $5 per hundredweight,” Kooima said.
While the rumor was dispelled, its impact lingered. “We don’t want to lose consumer confidence,” he cautioned. “We need all the demand we can get.”
🐮 Heifer Retention: Is It Happening Yet?
The question of herd rebuilding came up once again: Is the industry finally starting to see heifer retention?
“The heifer retention has happened in a small way,” Kooima noted, citing new data showing a slight drop in heifer placements. “But to really have a lot of drama and explosive change, you probably got to move that needle another five or eight percent.”
He said regional variations exist, with areas like North and South Dakota showing some early expansion, but cautioned: “It’s slower than I’ve ever seen it before.”
Kooima said producers can look forward to more clarity in July when both the next quarterly Cattle on Feed and reinstated Cattle Inventory reports are released.
🐮 Looking Ahead: Cash Preview and The Streak
While northern trade looks tight and steady, early southern trade is underwhelming.
“There was some $220 traded in Kansas to a regional down in Texas, which is steady,” Kooima said. “I'm a little disappointed that there's a little bit of leaking.”
And yes, the long-running streak of higher cash markets is on the line.
“Holding this streak is going to be... that’s a tall task from these kind of levels, but it’s been fun so far,” he said.
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