We unpack Trump’s push to cool beef prices, the market’s limit-down reaction in feeder cattle, and how policy headlines are whipsawing cash and futures. We track ripple effects from talk of banning Chinese used cooking oil, Argentina’s reemergence in trade flows, and the cash-first logic behind ADM’s free DP on soybeans.

• options floated to temper beef prices, and why cattle producers resist
• volatility from policy signaling, tweets, and import adjustments
• used cooking oil import talk and renewable diesel feedstock shifts
• Argentina currency backstops and meat quota implications
• soybean crush strategy in South America and delayed 45Z clarity
• basis strength, convergence mechanics, and cash flow priorities
• free DP as a signal of physical tightness, not a trick
• rate outlook into 2026 and potential China soybean “deliverables”
• shutdown impact on reports, CPI priority, and USDA timing
• land values supported by investors and solar leases
• bridge aid, reciprocity in trade, and farmer margins under pressure

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