We track a cascading week where a grinding shutdown hits flights and the economy, China’s soybean pledges collide with tariff math, and a Justice Department probe into meat packers meets a looming border reopening that could reshape beef supply. Markets swing on headlines as EPA biofuel exemptions, fertilizer policy shifts, and fresh crop data set the following moves, while affordability becomes the political keyword.

• shutdown stalemate, filibuster pressure, and GDP risk
• FAA cuts to flights and airline delays
• market rebounded into the close despite chaos
• China soybean commitments versus Brazil’s tariff edge
• waiver paths and competitiveness for U.S. beans
• pork’s 47 percent China tariff and lost share
• DOJ probe talk on meat packers and pricing
• screwworm, border closure, and phased reopening plans
• cattle futures at key moving averages and gaps
• EPA small refinery exemptions and soybean oil impact
• phosphate and potash added to the critical minerals list
• upcoming WASDE, crop production, and Brazil old-crop estimates
• election takeaways and affordability as the core message
• food stamp payment updates and court actions

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